Understanding the Sequence of Returns Risk in Retirement

Many retirees focus on their portfolio’s average return over time, assuming that a steady rate of return will keep their savings intact. However, the order in which investment gains and losses occur can have a dramatic impact on financial security, and consider monitoring the sequence of those returns.

Why Sequence of Returns Risk is a Major Concern

Retirees who experience early losses may run out of money much sooner than those who start retirement in a strong market. This risk is most severe in the first decade of retirement, making early planning essential.

How Market Volatility Affects Retirement Savings

In retirement, withdrawals during a downturn permanently reduce the portfolio’s value. Two retirees with the same savings but different market conditions can experience drastically different outcomes. Those facing losses early in retirement may need to adjust their spending or risk outliving their savings.


Key risks include:

  • Selling Low: Withdrawals from investments that have lost value leave less capital for future growth.
  • Longer Recovery Time: A smaller portfolio means future gains have less impact.
  • Inflation Pressure: Rising costs can force larger withdrawals, accelerating depletion.

Using the Bucket Strategy for Stability

The bucket strategy helps retirees manage their savings by dividing assets into three categories based on time horizon and risk tolerance. 


  • Short-term (2-5 years): Cash and bonds to cover immediate expenses, providing liquidity and stability. 
  • Intermediate-term (5-10 years): Bonds and conservative stocks for moderate growth while balancing risk. 
  • Long-term (10+ years): Stocks for higher returns, allowing investments to grow over time. 
  • This approach makes sure retirees can draw from stable assets in downturns while giving long-term investments time to recover. By reducing the need to sell stocks during market declines, it helps maintain financial security and peace of mind throughout retirement.

Adjusting Withdrawals Based on Market Conditions

A rigid withdrawal plan increases risk. Instead, you should adjust withdrawals based on market performance. When investments decline, reducing withdrawals can slow portfolio depletion. In strong years, withdrawing slightly more may be possible.


The guardrail strategy sets upper and lower spending limits, allowing you to adjust without drastic lifestyle changes, and allow your savings to last longer.

Diversifying Investments for Protection

A well-balanced portfolio includes a mix of stocks, which offer long-term growth potential, and bonds, which provide stability and a steady income stream. Additionally, alternative investments such as real estate, commodities, or dividend-paying assets can add another layer of security, helping to cushion against market volatility.


Regularly rebalancing the portfolio assures that asset allocation remains aligned with retirement goals, preventing overexposure to any single investment type and maintaining a sustainable risk level.

Creating Reliable Income Sources

A stable income stream is essential in retirement to reduce reliance on investment withdrawals, especially during market downturns. Social Security benefits can provide a foundation, and delaying claims can significantly increase monthly payments. Annuities offer guaranteed lifetime income, helping retirees manage longevity risk by making sure they do not outlive their savings.


Other income sources, such as rental properties or pensions, add financial stability by providing consistent cash flow regardless of market conditions. By securing multiple income streams, retirees can reduce withdrawal pressure on investment portfolios, allowing assets to grow and last longer.

Managing Taxes to Keep More Savings

Minimizing taxes ensures more money stays in the portfolio for long-term use. Following tax-efficient withdrawals can preserve more retirement funds, and some of the strategies include:


Withdrawing from taxable accounts first to delay taxes on retirement accounts.

Using Roth conversions to lower future required minimum distributions (RMDs).

Offsetting gains with tax-loss harvesting to reduce taxable income.

Since markets are unpredictable, you should regularly review and adjust their plans. We, at South Star Wealth Management, understand this sequence of risks and can offer you professional guidance in navigating these shifts safely with maximum returns after your retirement. Schedule a meeting with our experts today!

July 9, 2026
Melanie Weischwill | Partner & Financial Advisor  July 8, 2026
July 9, 2026
Greg Iacurci@GregIacurci | Personal Finance Reporter  Published Tue, Jul 7 202612:21 PM EDT Key Points A new study in the Journal of Financial Planning found that artificial intelligence programs can provide inconsistent, inaccurate or biased recommendations when it comes to personal finance. Researchers prompted seven AI programs — ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, DeepSeek, Gemini, Meta AI and Perplexity — with questions about emergency savings, asset allocation and withdrawals from a retirement portfolio. The findings align with those of other experts, who recommend using AI as a starting point for financial questions but not as a final authority. When it comes to personal finance, artificial intelligence gives advice that can be inaccurate or demographically biased, and can range widely depending on the particular program that consumers use, according to a new academic research study. The research — which studied seven “widely available” generative AI platforms — found “significant variation” in how GenAI answered prompts about emergency savings, asset allocation and withdrawals from a retirement portfolio. Researchers examined free-access versions of ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, DeepSeek, Gemini, Meta AI and Perplexity. “GenAI-driven responses may sound confident but can still be incomplete, misleading, or incorrect,” according to the paper, published last month in the Journal of Financial Planning and authored by finance professors at the University of Georgia and University of Rome Tor Vergata in Italy. Its “suboptimal” or biased outputs raise questions “about the consistency and fairness of GenAI-driven recommendations,” according to authors Swarn Chatterjee, Brenda Cude and Gianni Nicolini. The findings come as a large share of Americans are turning to AI to help manage their money. Two out of three Americans — 66% — who have used GenAI said they’ve leveraged it for financial advice, according to an Intuit Credit Karma survey published in September. The share is higher for Gen Z and millennials, at 82% for each cohort. Experts said that AI is generally good at providing high-level overviews of financial topics: For example, why it’s important to diversify investments, or why exchange-traded funds may be better than mutual funds in some cases but not others. However, it has limitations that mean users shouldn’t trust its output blindly, they said. For one, the programs can also provide wrong answers due to so-called “hallucination” of the algorithm, experts said. “One of the things about LLMs that I find particularly concerning is that no matter what you ask it, it’ll always come back with an answer that sounds authoritative, even if it’s not,” Andrew Lo, director of MIT’s Laboratory for Financial Engineering and principal investigator at its Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab, told CNBC in an interview in March. “When it comes to very, very specific calculations of your own personal situation, that’s where you have to be very, very careful,” Lo said. In addition, AI is sensitive to how users write their prompts, meaning small differences in input can lead to variation in its recommendations. AI also doesn’t owe a fiduciary duty to users, meaning it doesn’t legally need to provide financial advice in users’ best interests. Other research studies have also pointed to the limitations of AI for personal finance. In one 2024 study, for example, researchers examined ChatGPT’s ability to provide financial advice. They found it could be a “first stop” for households seeking financial advice, but ultimately found its recommendations to be “generic,” often overlooking certain pertinent information. “We believe that ChatGPT can serve as a starting point in giving and finding financial advice, but its recommendations should be carefully scrutinized and assessed,” according to the study, published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management. The latest study, in the Journal of Financial Planning, queried the seven GenAI platforms in August 2025 with the same set of prompts. Researchers prompted the platforms with three identical financial scenarios, related to emergency savings, the optimal withdrawal rate from retirement savings and the recommended composition of an investment portfolio. They then used the same prompts, but changed the race and gender of the hypothetical individual to learn if the GenAI recommendations would change. They found “substantial variation in guidance” across platforms relative to emergency savings and asset allocation. “Although the tools often produced recommendations that broadly aligned with generic financial planning principles, such as the 4 percent retirement withdrawal rule, there were significant differences across platforms in suggested emergency savings and portfolio allocations,” researchers wrote. “The findings suggest that GenAl may serve as a helpful starting point for consumers but should complement, not replace, professional financial advice,” they said. Of course, GenAI tools are “still evolving,” and future studies may find different results, they said. And, outputs from the paid GenAI models may differ from those of the free versions that were assessed. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC. CNBC, South Star Wealth Management and LPL Financial are separate entities.
June 9, 2026
Kristian Kerr | Head of Macro Strategy Last Updated: June 04, 2026
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