Three Macro Factors Affecting Risk Appetite

Dr. Jeffrey Roach | Chief Economist

Last Updated: August 20, 2026

Investors have spent much of the summer navigating a familiar tension: an economy that continues to show resilience even as concerns linger over inflation, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical risks. Yet beneath the daily headlines, several underlying forces are helping to keep financial markets on relatively stable footing.


Three developments stand out. First, continued demand for U.S. Treasury securities from Japan, the largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt, remains an important source of support for global capital markets. Second, financial conditions in the United States remain easier than in most major developed and emerging economies, providing a favorable backdrop for risk assets. Third, while inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's (Fed) target, price pressures have moderated since their spring peak, helping to reinforce expectations that longer-term inflation expectations will stay anchored.


Taken together, these trends suggest that investors are looking beyond near-term uncertainties and focusing on a global macro backdrop that, while far from risk-free, remains more constructive than many anticipated earlier this year. Understanding these dynamics helps explain why markets have continued to absorb economic and geopolitical shocks with relatively limited disruption.

Japan is the Largest Foreign Holder of U.S. Treasuries

Source: LPL Research, U.S. Treasury 08/18/26

First, U.S. Needs Japan to Keep Buying

Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, and the U.S. needs to keep Japan’s demand for our debt as robust as possible. Japan runs a large trade surplus with the United States and has accumulated significant foreign currency reserves, especially in U.S. dollars. Further, U.S. Treasuries are the world’s largest and most liquid government bond market, making them a natural place for Japan to invest those reserves while preserving capital. Investors need to be aware of any shifting trends within Japan but for now, Japan buys Treasuries because they are the safest place to invest its dollar reserves and the Treasury market is large enough to absorb Japan’s significant overseas investment flows.


Second, Financial Conditions Favor the U.S.

In this next chart, you see that the U.S. has the least financial stress among both developed and emerging markets.


Financial Conditions are Better than Average

Source: LPL Research, Office of Financial Research, 08/18/26


Values below zero imply financial markets are below average stress levels. While all three lines are below average stress, the U.S. is ranked with the lowest stress right now.


Is it a bit of complacency? That’s possible, but at this point, investors are looking past the near-term headwinds.


Third, Inflation Conditions Improved Since May

Although the Fed is still concerned with the pace of consumer inflation, we have seen some improvements.


The Worst Inflation Has Passed

Inflation Dashboard (Y/Y %)

Feb 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

May 2026

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Import Prices

0.99%

2.26%

4.52%

6.81%

6.68%

5.95%

Producer Prices

3.35%

4.28%

5.70%

5.83%

5.54%

4.66%

Services Prices Index

63.00

70.70

70.70

71.30

67.70

70.30

Manufacturing Price Index

0.58

0.68

1.84

1.81

1.19

0.79

Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

0.58

0.68

1.84

1.81

1.19

0.79

Gasoline Prices: U.S. Average

2.93

3.70

4.13

4.50

4.05

3.97

Consumer Prices (CPI)

2.41%

3.26%

3.81%

4.25%

3.53%

3.36%

Consumer Prices (CPI) Excluding Housing

2.15%

3.43%

4.05%

4.61%

3.58%

3.38%

Rent Prices (CPI)

2.68%

2.56%

2.79%

2.92%

2.84%

2.86%

PCE Deflator

2.87%

3.54%

3.79%

4.08%

3.67%

 

PCE Deflator: Core Services Ex Housing

3.34%

3.53%

3.57%

3.89%

3.81%

 

Source: LPL Research, AAA, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, NY Fed 08/18/26


Conditions in February were quite promising as the trajectory implied that inflation was heading toward the 2% target to be reached by early next year if not sooner. But then came the Middle East conflict and a shock in oil prices. We hit the highest inflation metrics in May but since then, we’ve seen some improvement despite the on-again-off-again agreements.


Looking ahead, one of the most important things right now is keeping two- and five-year inflation expectations well anchored. If so, then we may have averted larger disruptions.


So What?

For investors, the macro factors suggest the foundations of the current expansion remain intact. Continued foreign demand for U.S. Treasury securities and a proactive Treasury Secretary (as witnessed Wednesday) help underpin funding markets, relatively easy financial conditions support economic activity, and recent progress on inflation reduces the likelihood of a more disruptive policy response from the Fed. While bouts of volatility should be expected given ongoing geopolitical and policy uncertainties, the backdrop argues for maintaining strategic exposure to equities while preserving diversification through high-quality fixed income. In other words, the macro environment does not appear to warrant a defensive posture, but it does reinforce the case for balance: participate in growth opportunities while recognizing that bond yields remain attractive and can provide valuable ballast if market conditions become less forgiving.

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Greg Iacurci@GregIacurci | Personal Finance Reporter  Published Tue, Jul 7 202612:21 PM EDT Key Points A new study in the Journal of Financial Planning found that artificial intelligence programs can provide inconsistent, inaccurate or biased recommendations when it comes to personal finance. Researchers prompted seven AI programs — ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, DeepSeek, Gemini, Meta AI and Perplexity — with questions about emergency savings, asset allocation and withdrawals from a retirement portfolio. The findings align with those of other experts, who recommend using AI as a starting point for financial questions but not as a final authority. When it comes to personal finance, artificial intelligence gives advice that can be inaccurate or demographically biased, and can range widely depending on the particular program that consumers use, according to a new academic research study. The research — which studied seven “widely available” generative AI platforms — found “significant variation” in how GenAI answered prompts about emergency savings, asset allocation and withdrawals from a retirement portfolio. Researchers examined free-access versions of ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, DeepSeek, Gemini, Meta AI and Perplexity. “GenAI-driven responses may sound confident but can still be incomplete, misleading, or incorrect,” according to the paper, published last month in the Journal of Financial Planning and authored by finance professors at the University of Georgia and University of Rome Tor Vergata in Italy. Its “suboptimal” or biased outputs raise questions “about the consistency and fairness of GenAI-driven recommendations,” according to authors Swarn Chatterjee, Brenda Cude and Gianni Nicolini. The findings come as a large share of Americans are turning to AI to help manage their money. Two out of three Americans — 66% — who have used GenAI said they’ve leveraged it for financial advice, according to an Intuit Credit Karma survey published in September. The share is higher for Gen Z and millennials, at 82% for each cohort. Experts said that AI is generally good at providing high-level overviews of financial topics: For example, why it’s important to diversify investments, or why exchange-traded funds may be better than mutual funds in some cases but not others. However, it has limitations that mean users shouldn’t trust its output blindly, they said. For one, the programs can also provide wrong answers due to so-called “hallucination” of the algorithm, experts said. “One of the things about LLMs that I find particularly concerning is that no matter what you ask it, it’ll always come back with an answer that sounds authoritative, even if it’s not,” Andrew Lo, director of MIT’s Laboratory for Financial Engineering and principal investigator at its Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab, told CNBC in an interview in March. “When it comes to very, very specific calculations of your own personal situation, that’s where you have to be very, very careful,” Lo said. In addition, AI is sensitive to how users write their prompts, meaning small differences in input can lead to variation in its recommendations. AI also doesn’t owe a fiduciary duty to users, meaning it doesn’t legally need to provide financial advice in users’ best interests. Other research studies have also pointed to the limitations of AI for personal finance. In one 2024 study, for example, researchers examined ChatGPT’s ability to provide financial advice. They found it could be a “first stop” for households seeking financial advice, but ultimately found its recommendations to be “generic,” often overlooking certain pertinent information. “We believe that ChatGPT can serve as a starting point in giving and finding financial advice, but its recommendations should be carefully scrutinized and assessed,” according to the study, published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management. The latest study, in the Journal of Financial Planning, queried the seven GenAI platforms in August 2025 with the same set of prompts. Researchers prompted the platforms with three identical financial scenarios, related to emergency savings, the optimal withdrawal rate from retirement savings and the recommended composition of an investment portfolio. They then used the same prompts, but changed the race and gender of the hypothetical individual to learn if the GenAI recommendations would change. They found “substantial variation in guidance” across platforms relative to emergency savings and asset allocation. “Although the tools often produced recommendations that broadly aligned with generic financial planning principles, such as the 4 percent retirement withdrawal rule, there were significant differences across platforms in suggested emergency savings and portfolio allocations,” researchers wrote. “The findings suggest that GenAl may serve as a helpful starting point for consumers but should complement, not replace, professional financial advice,” they said. Of course, GenAI tools are “still evolving,” and future studies may find different results, they said. And, outputs from the paid GenAI models may differ from those of the free versions that were assessed. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC. CNBC, South Star Wealth Management and LPL Financial are separate entities.
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