Earnings Strength Remains Amid Mideast Conflict

Jeff Buchbinder | Chief Equity Strategist


Last Updated: March 17, 2026

All Eyes on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

Investors’ attention remains squarely focused on Iran, as it should be. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading near $100 per barrel, more than $40 above the recent mid-December low as tanker ships are still not sailing freely through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is allowing its own tankers to get through, not surprisingly, sending important oil to China (China imports about 90% of Iranian oil exports). Reportedly Iran has allowed tankers bound for several other Asian countries including India and Pakistan to traverse the vital and dangerous waterway, easing some pressure on global oil prices as the week began.


As has been the case from day one when the first airstrikes began, the key factor in assessing economic and market impact is the duration of the effective Strait of Hormuz closure and resulting effects on prices of energy and other commodities. Prediction markets are split on whether the conflict ends by the end of May. While no one knows what the off ramp looks like, we do know that opening the Strait will be messy and is likely to take at least a few more weeks. Our allies have been reluctant to send naval escorts to the region to help, putting more pressure on President Trump to create the conditions for a cease fire and clear the Strait unilaterally. As we have written about several times in recent weeks, including in our Weekly Market Commentary on March 9.

Earnings Impact

Amid all of the attention on the war in the Mideast, earnings expectations have held up remarkably well and remain supportive of stock prices. Massive capital investment in AI capabilities continues at a historic pace, with plans ratcheting higher each quarter and powering strong technology sector earnings. In fact, the technology sector contributed over half of overall earnings growth for the S&P 500 last quarter (8 out of 14 points) and will likely drive an even larger percent contribution in the first quarter. Fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is also providing support for earnings by driving capital investment and spending.


Remember the historical pattern is for earnings to fall 4% to 6% short of estimates at the beginning of the year. Last year was a different story, and we’re seeing the same unusual strength in earnings estimates for this year and 2027 so far this year.

S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Have Been Rising Steadily Despite AI, Mideast Concerns

Source: LPL Research, FactSet 03/16/26

Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Estimates may not materialize as predicted and are subject to change.


Rising estimates for the energy sector are helping push overall 2026 earnings estimates higher as shown in “It’s Not Just Energy Boosting Earnings Estimates.” But it’s not alone. The technology and materials sectors are contributing more than their fair share. This is just March to date – barely two weeks.

It’s Not Just Energy Helping Boost Earnings Estimates

Source: LPL Research, FactSet 03/16/26

Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Estimates may not materialize as predicted and are subject to change.


Bottom line, earnings momentum is strong and is likely to remain so despite the war in Iran. Given the drivers of U.S. economic growth remain in place and the U.S. is energy independent, double-digit earnings growth in 2026 remains likely and will likely put a strong foundation underneath the stock market until the geopolitical threat eases, helping to mitigate downside risk. We continue to monitor the situation closely.

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Greg Iacurci@GregIacurci | Personal Finance Reporter  Published Tue, Jul 7 202612:21 PM EDT Key Points A new study in the Journal of Financial Planning found that artificial intelligence programs can provide inconsistent, inaccurate or biased recommendations when it comes to personal finance. Researchers prompted seven AI programs — ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, DeepSeek, Gemini, Meta AI and Perplexity — with questions about emergency savings, asset allocation and withdrawals from a retirement portfolio. The findings align with those of other experts, who recommend using AI as a starting point for financial questions but not as a final authority. When it comes to personal finance, artificial intelligence gives advice that can be inaccurate or demographically biased, and can range widely depending on the particular program that consumers use, according to a new academic research study. The research — which studied seven “widely available” generative AI platforms — found “significant variation” in how GenAI answered prompts about emergency savings, asset allocation and withdrawals from a retirement portfolio. Researchers examined free-access versions of ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, DeepSeek, Gemini, Meta AI and Perplexity. “GenAI-driven responses may sound confident but can still be incomplete, misleading, or incorrect,” according to the paper, published last month in the Journal of Financial Planning and authored by finance professors at the University of Georgia and University of Rome Tor Vergata in Italy. Its “suboptimal” or biased outputs raise questions “about the consistency and fairness of GenAI-driven recommendations,” according to authors Swarn Chatterjee, Brenda Cude and Gianni Nicolini. The findings come as a large share of Americans are turning to AI to help manage their money. Two out of three Americans — 66% — who have used GenAI said they’ve leveraged it for financial advice, according to an Intuit Credit Karma survey published in September. The share is higher for Gen Z and millennials, at 82% for each cohort. Experts said that AI is generally good at providing high-level overviews of financial topics: For example, why it’s important to diversify investments, or why exchange-traded funds may be better than mutual funds in some cases but not others. However, it has limitations that mean users shouldn’t trust its output blindly, they said. For one, the programs can also provide wrong answers due to so-called “hallucination” of the algorithm, experts said. “One of the things about LLMs that I find particularly concerning is that no matter what you ask it, it’ll always come back with an answer that sounds authoritative, even if it’s not,” Andrew Lo, director of MIT’s Laboratory for Financial Engineering and principal investigator at its Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab, told CNBC in an interview in March. “When it comes to very, very specific calculations of your own personal situation, that’s where you have to be very, very careful,” Lo said. In addition, AI is sensitive to how users write their prompts, meaning small differences in input can lead to variation in its recommendations. AI also doesn’t owe a fiduciary duty to users, meaning it doesn’t legally need to provide financial advice in users’ best interests. Other research studies have also pointed to the limitations of AI for personal finance. In one 2024 study, for example, researchers examined ChatGPT’s ability to provide financial advice. They found it could be a “first stop” for households seeking financial advice, but ultimately found its recommendations to be “generic,” often overlooking certain pertinent information. “We believe that ChatGPT can serve as a starting point in giving and finding financial advice, but its recommendations should be carefully scrutinized and assessed,” according to the study, published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management. The latest study, in the Journal of Financial Planning, queried the seven GenAI platforms in August 2025 with the same set of prompts. Researchers prompted the platforms with three identical financial scenarios, related to emergency savings, the optimal withdrawal rate from retirement savings and the recommended composition of an investment portfolio. They then used the same prompts, but changed the race and gender of the hypothetical individual to learn if the GenAI recommendations would change. They found “substantial variation in guidance” across platforms relative to emergency savings and asset allocation. “Although the tools often produced recommendations that broadly aligned with generic financial planning principles, such as the 4 percent retirement withdrawal rule, there were significant differences across platforms in suggested emergency savings and portfolio allocations,” researchers wrote. “The findings suggest that GenAl may serve as a helpful starting point for consumers but should complement, not replace, professional financial advice,” they said. Of course, GenAI tools are “still evolving,” and future studies may find different results, they said. And, outputs from the paid GenAI models may differ from those of the free versions that were assessed. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC. CNBC, South Star Wealth Management and LPL Financial are separate entities.
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